Should You Buy or Sell a home in Savannah During an Election Year?

by David Whalley

Should You Buy or Sell in Savannah During an Election Year?

No matter how many elections you’ve seen, every time November rolls around, it can feel like a bit of a gamble when you're deciding whether to make a move in real estate or wait for things to settle. The truth is, presidential elections usually have a small and temporary effect on the housing market. But it's natural to wonder how this year's election might impact your plans to buy or sell a home in Savannah.

So, let's break down what typically happens in election years and what that might mean for you here in the Coastal Empire.

How Do Elections Affect the Housing Market?

Home Sales

Historically, there's been a slight dip in U.S. home sales during November of election years. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, notes that while the housing market remains steady overall, November usually slows down a bit. That slowdown is often because buyers and sellers hesitate, feeling uncertain about how the election's outcome might impact their finances or future plans.

But here’s the good news: it's a short-lived pause. In most cases, home sales bounce right back in December and pick up steam going into the next year. In fact, after nine of the last eleven presidential elections, home sales increased the following year, according to data from Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

So, while there might be a brief slowdown in Savannah’s market, it's typically nothing to lose sleep over.

Home Prices

According to Bankrate, home price growth during election years often outpaces non-election years. A study of Case-Shiller data shows that home prices grew by an average of 4.84% during election years since 1987, compared to 4.44% in other years.

Based on that, you might think presidential elections are good for the housing market. The reality is a bit more complicated.

In recent history, 2008 stands out as the toughest election year for the U.S. housing market. Home values took a nosedive, dropping 12% as the housing bubble of 2004-2007 burst. But this crash wasn’t tied to the election itself—it was the result of some pretty awful economic timing, with the global economy in freefall. On the bright side, the market had a lot of room to rebound after such a sharp decline.

That year is also the only election year in recent memory where home price appreciation dropped significantly from the previous year, going from -5.4% to a staggering -12%. On the flip side, the best year for home price growth since 1987 was 2021, when values soared by 18.9% due to record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic. Again, these wild market swings had more to do with unique economic factors than the election itself.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are always a hot topic, especially when you’re trying to lock in that dream home. Historically, mortgage rates tend to decline in the months leading up to a presidential election. According to Freddie Mac, rates dropped between July and November in eight of the last eleven elections.

Looking ahead, most housing forecasts expect rates to ease up a bit through 2024 and into 2025. This could mean lower monthly payments, but remember—lower rates can also drive more buyers into the market, which may lead to increased competition and higher home prices.

The Bottom Line

While political candidates love to tout their economic plans, the reality is that presidential elections usually have little influence over the housing market in the short term. What matters more is keeping an eye on local trends here in Savannah. So if you’re considering making a move, whether it’s buying or selling, don’t let the election cycle hold you back. Real estate is about timing that works for you, not just what's happening in Washington.

Curious about how your neighborhood is doing? I’ve got personalized data and insights just for you. Reach out and let’s chat about your next move in Savannah's ever-evolving market.